Feeling a draft (with video!)

The draft has come and gone, and the Chargers once again managed to defy almost any an all expectations I had about which direction they might go. Even the picks which I did think might happen (Matthews and Thomas), happened far earlier and later than I would have expected.

Its a funny thing about the draft. Every year there are 252 players chosen, and many many more who are signed as UFDAs. Every year we look over these players, their numbers, their stats, game film, interviews and DNA sequencing, trying to figure out who will boom and who will bust. Every year we talk ourselves into how great it would be to have certain players, usually far, far more than your team could draft even with a dozen first round picks.

And then as soon as the draft is over and your team's picks are known, you immediate have to delude yourself into thinking that these players are the only ones who will pan out. Those other guys who you were drooling over last week? Busts, every last one of them. Too slow, too small, too soft, too lazy, too dumb, too many baby-mommas. Not like our new guys, who are all pro-bowl bound.

So lets take a look at the new Chargers and how they fit into our Super Bowl plans.

Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno State

I've already made my feelings on Mathews known in a previous post. The general consensus seems to be that the Chargers gave up too much to go get Matthews, but in reality he never would have gotten down to 28. The Seahawks were rumored to want him at 14, so the move to 12 makes sense. Even though the trade seems extreme, when you actually look at the point values its not.

Let's look at the trade.

The Chargers get:

#12 – 1200 points
#110 – 74
#173 – 23.2

#28 – 660
#40 – 500
#126 – 46

And Tim Dobbins, who wasn't going to make the team anyway according to Kevin Acee. So in terms of draft picks, the Chargers actually came out ahead 90 points, which is the equivalent of a 4th round draft pick. So the real question is, whats the value of Tim Dobbins? He's a good special teamer but he's only ever been a backup for the Chargers, and even if he did make the team this year it would be his last because of his contract situation. What's more important, the Chargers got the player that they did want, one who potentially could do great things for them.

This is the exact same thing that happened with the Eric Weddle trade. Everyone looked at the number of picks, as opposed to the value of the picks, and so what was actually an even trade on the point scale gets criticized needlessly.

There are a lot of videos of Matthews and his highlights, but this one seems to be the most complete. Check out the acceleration, wiggle, and balance.



Donald Butler, ILB, Washington

I hadn't really looked at ILBs prior to the draft, but in hindsight I should have seen this coming. Dobbins was gone either way, and the remaining 3 ILBs are all in the last year of their current contracts. Cooper is 31, so his days as a Charger are likely numbered, and its impossible to back on both Burnett and Siler being retained.

Overall I like the pick. Butler seems like a good football player who is physical and has good instincts, though he does have limitations. He has neither top end speed nor size, but he should fit just fine in the middle of a 3-4. We'll have to wait and see, but I predict he'll be a quick contributor and eventual starter, next year if not this year.

I couldn't find a good video to embed, but here's a video from NFL.com which tells you a little about our new linebacker.

Darrell Stuckey, Saftey, Kansas

Very similar to Butler, in that he has neither elite size nor speed, but he's a great all around player who will knock your ass to the ground. I hadn't really looked at safeties either since there were areas of bigger need, but I think this is another quality pick. He should be able to contribute on special teams both as a returned and a cover guy, and he might be an upgrade at safety over Kevin Ellison. Same type of player, but two steps faster.

He's also very dedicated, to both football and his education.



Cam Thomas, NT, North Carolina

"I'm country strong ... Lift hay, cut grass, pick up motors."

Yes indeed, he's all kinds of strong. Just take a look the film from the Senior bowl. He's number 95, with the light blue UNC helmet, and he makes his living shoving guards into the backfield.



Cam Thomas is a project with a lot of upside but a lot of risk as well. I'm glad the Chargers were able to get him so late in the draft, but whether or not he really is a steal will depend on how well it pans out. Honestly I don't love him as a player at this point. Were I building a defense from scratch I wouldn't start with him. However, the Charger's aren't in that situation. They have one huge need, and that's for a "country strong" space eater. Pretty much the only thing Cam Thomas does is eat space. Seems like a good fit. He's not going to be Warren Sapp, but at 30-35 snaps a game in run situations he can be a great value.

The other thing to love is that he has a huge personality. I've heard him in interviews and Kevin Acee is correct, he's like a more hyper Marcus McNeil. If he sticks around, who knows, maybe there's a Thomas jersey in my future.

Jonathan Crompton, QB, Tennessee

Catfish Crompton. The Crompfish. Oh boy.

We did need a third QB, and I didn't really like our options in the later rounds. So I guess it could be worse. But my immediate reaction upon hearing the pick was to think back to this piece at EDSBS, written last year by a Vols fan in the midst of deep, Crompton caused depression. Yes, he turned it around later and had a pretty good end to his senior year, but he'll always be a catfish to me.

I'll have to defer to Norv on this. As much as we rip on him, there's on thing at which Norv has few equals in this world: developing NFL quarterbacks. If he saw something in this kid that can be molded into a decent backup then I'll trust him.

I'll give him this though, he seems to have a good arm.



However, I have to question using that pick to get him. More value could have been had at almost any other position. To me, this was the biggest wasted pick this year, considering that this is a guy who we all hope never sees the field.

My own personal theory is that AJ needs for the Bolts to have at least two hick QBs on the roster at all times, and since Charlie Whitehurst was gone he had to fill in our quota.

Dedrick Epps, TE, Miami

We needed another tight end, and he was about the only one still left on the board at the end of the 7th round. He seems to be an all around average player. Average size, average speed, average reciever, average blocker. But above average effort, which is always important. I have no expectations of him either way, but if he does turn out to be a decent player I'll be happy with that.

I did manage to find one tape of him making a pretty nice catch.



Other thoughts

We drafted no O-lineman, no receivers, and only one running back. The first two have been addressed with a couple of good UDFA pickups who may pan out, but the last one is still up in the air. We have 4 RBs who will make the roster (Mathews, Sproles, Tolbert and Hester). Who is the 5th? Mason, who we got off waivers? Can Curtis Brinkley come back from his unfortunate gunshot wound last year? Are we waiting for cuts in order to snatch someone up?

I was honestly hoping for and expecting more movement on the RB front. Even though Sproles and Mathews will carry the load during the season, someone needs to take over and handle all the carries during the preseason, and we could always used more competition and depth at a position like RB, where injuries are so common. I'm guessing this will be addressed between now and camp.