Mocking the draft, part 2

Ok, I've gotten my annual "don't draft a QB first" rant out of the way.

Now on to more pressing matters: the Chargers' new running back.

By the end of the draft, and possibly within 24 hours of this post, the Chargers will have a new RB on their roster. Putting aside the possibility of a trade, this new player will certainly be drafted, and most likely in the first 3 rounds. I actually suspect that more than one will be drafted, but such things are hard to figure either way. I'm doubtful on the prospect of AJ spending a first rounder on this new ball carrier. It certainly could happen, but this class is so deep in backs I suspect they could pass in the first and still get a great pick in the 2nd, 3rd or even 4th.

I've wasted a lot of my precious youth pouring over scouting reports and daydreaming about who this new back will be and how he'll take us to the Super Bowl next year and then we'll go steady and get married and live happily ever after. But who is the Mystery Date? Let's look at the possibilities, in no particular order:

First, it won't be CJ Spiller. He'll likely be long gone by pick 28. Too bad.

Jahvid Best, Cal

I think Jahvid is a luxury that the Chargers can't afford to spend a high pick on. He's fast. Oh boy, is he fast. Put the ball in his hands in space and its game freaking over. Assuming no defenders breathe too hard within a yard of him, in which case he's a serious injury risk.

As much as it would be cool to have him on the roster (and prevent other teams from having him), Jahvid looks like a slightly bigger version of Sproles to me. Fast on the corner, deadly in space, doesn't give you much between the tackles. And really, that's what we need. It would be great to have him if we can't sign Sproles after this year, or if we trade Sproles this weekend, but as long as we have Darren I just don't see the value in spending a high pick on Jahvid, unless you plan to also draft a mauling back in the later rounds.

Ryan Matthews, Fresno State

A classic test of the Wisdom of Crowds. I say that because roughly 90% of the mock drafts I have seen (and I've seen far too many) have the Chargers taking Matthews at 28. Its amazing really, the amount of group think demonstrated here and anyone who knows anything about AJ Smith knows that this all but assures that he will not pick Matthews. Personally, I'm skeptical that Matthews will still be around at 28th. But, assuming he is there, and assuming AJ bucks his trend of bucking the trend and picks him, what do I think of him?

I'm really mixed on Matthews. Let me start with the negatives. First, he's had some injury issues and missed time because of it. Nothing too major, but we have to consider it. I've also heard mixed things about his contribution to the passing game, both catching the ball and blocking, with more than one report saying that he's a liability. This is a vital part of the Charger offense, and if its true that Matthews can't contribute there then his value is greatly reduced. Again, I don't know if its true and I don't really have the film to find out.

Another knock on Matthews is that he possibly benefited from an dominant O-line which beat up lesser opponents. One scouting report I read called him an "uncharismatic runner", meaning he tests well in shorts but doesn't play as strong as his measurables might indicate. Now, Fresno State did play some really good teams, including Wisconsin, Cincinnati and Boise State, and he was super productive against all of them. The Boise game is really impressive, as he had over 200 yards and 3 TDs against the undefeated, Fiesta Bowl winning, Oregon and TCU thumping Broncos. But even looking at those highlights, his big runs did come as the result of big holes by the Bulldog O-line. They gave him space and he took it to the house. Impressive, to be sure, but how will that translate to the NFL, where even the best O-line's aren't super dominant and the Charger O-line is far from the best at running the rock? Will he be able to pound it between the tackles successfully in addition to his big play ability?

I guess my biggest concern about Ryan Matthews is the too good to be true factor. Why should we be so lucky that he would fall to 28? If he's so great, why won't he be snatched up earlier?

Although it may seem like I'm down on Matthews, I do have some positives. He gets the Lorenzo Neal seal of approval. Even discounting the blatant Fresno State homerism, that's still a strong endorsement. And I tend to think that AJ had a pretty good eye for running back talent and how it translates to the NFL, so if he does tap Matthews I'll trust his judgment.

But the biggest thing I like about Matthews is who he makes me think of. Watching his highlight tapes, with the big runs, sharp cuts, stiff arms, incredible balance, and overall strong production, I can't help but think that he reminds me of another great back: LT. That's how LT runs. That's how he deals with defenders. That's his quickness, his cutting, his balance. And I can't help but get a little excited when I think about the possibilities.

Toby Gerhart, Stanford

Robbed of the Heisman last year, Toby is an interesting prospect to replace LT. He has a significant injury history, including an ACL replacement in his past. He was a beast among men in college, running over, around and through helpless defenders. However, this ain't college anymore, and no one can do that in the NFL. My big concern is how his body can hold up crashing into NFL defenders 25+ times a game with his upright running style. I'm also not too sure what he gives you in the passing game, though I don't see why that should be a problem.

In a lot of ways I think that Gerhart is the anti-Jahvid, which is probably fitting given that they played for Stanford and Cal, respectively. I think that Toby will be a solid between the tackles runner who won't turn the corner too well or run away from people. There's a little bit of boom or bust here. Best case scenario, this is Jerome Bettis 2.0. Worst case, he's the new Jacob Hester, and frankly we are filled up on our quota of Jacob Hesters. That said, I like what he could potentially bring to San Diego, especially as a one-two punch with Sproles.

That's the end of the California Boys at the top of the list. This is getting a little long, so we'll move on to the Southern boys in another post.