Draft Dementia

Tomorrow is the start of the NFL Draft. Its the end of months of scouting, rumors, testing, speculation, information and misinformation. If current news reports are to be believed, the Detroit Lions, the only team ever to finished 0-16 in the history of the NFL, will be selecting Georgia QB Matt Stafford with the first overall pick. Of course, there's no telling what could happen between now and 4PM tomorrow, especially given that the Lions haven't yet agreed to contract terms with Stafford, but lets assume for the time being that he's the pick.

Dumb.

Dumb Dumb Dumb Dumb Dumb.

I have nothing against Matt Stafford. Maybe he's a great guy. He seems fun enough to hang out with (from what little I do know about him, he seems to know his way around a keg). Maybe he's a pro Bowler or even a future Hall of Famer.

But I doubt it.

I think Matt Stafford could be a perfectly fine QB in this league. Maybe.

What I do know for sure is that this is a dumb pick. And yet it surprises no one, least of all me.

There are several important reasons why this would be a dumb pick.

First, why the hell does Matt Stafford warrant consideration as a top of the first round QB? Sure he's athletic enough (most Division 1 QBs are) and has a strong arm (ditto). He played reasonably well against mostly strong competition, though a lot of his team's success had to do with the strength of his defense and running game (true in most cases, of course). But what exactly screams out "FIRST ROUND TALENT! PAY THIS GUY 70 MILLION DOLLARS AND ALL YOUR PROBLEMS ARE OVER!"?

Seriously, I want to know. I realize he's talented, but what's the big deal about this guy?

I'm not one to believe in willful media conspiracies or biases, but I do believe in media stupidity and laziness. And the NFL draft media is no exception to this (they're probably worse than most). Every single year they do this. They deliberately spotlight a couple of QBs and build them up at the next big thing. Of course, NFL personnel are really the ones compliant here, because its their idiocy in scouting these guys. They need QBs because its the glamour position and the face of the league. They need 2 so they can play them off each other. Its a crazy sort of groupthink.

Part of me thinks its a con job by the other teams which eventually winds up with some idiotic team getting duped into drafting and paying a ton of money to one of these overhyped QBs. Then all the other teams laugh at the con job and the other QB in the pair, who was supposed to be just as good as the first fella, falls like a stone and the other teams get their pick of the actual good players while the top team doesn't improve at all. Think Alex Smith & Aaron Rodgers or Jamarcus Russell and Brady Quinn.

This is an unproven QB. In the NFL, the odds that an unproven first round QB will really pan out are probably 50-50 at best, and a lot of that depends on the supporting cast the team puts around them. Sure, its easy to look at the Matt Ryans and Joe Flaccos of the world and think all you need is a strong armed, broad shouldered Messiah to come in and turn things around. Easy, until you realize that both those QBs benefited from a very strong supporting cast, just as pretty much every young successful QB in the NFL does (and the old ones too).

You know who doesn't have a very strong supporting cast?

The Detroit Lions.

You know what doesn't really help a team in putting together a strong cast?

Drafting a QB number 1 overall.

Which is the real reason why, irregardless of Stafford's talents, this is a stupid pick.

Let's think about this for a minute. You draft a QB with the number 1 pick overall. Let's be optimistic and suppose he doesn't hold out. You're going to end up paying him a shit-ton of money over the next 6 years. Not only is he the number 1 pick, but he'll also likely demand the so called "QB premium", so tack on 10% more. The last QB to go number 1 overall was Jamarcus Russell, who eventually signed with the Raiders for 6 years and $65 million. While that was extra crazy in itself, owing to Russell's holdout and the fact that the Raiders are idiots, we have to assume that any Stafford deal would be in the same ballpark.

So they draft this guy and sign him to a huge freaking contract. What's the best case scenario for him? Perhaps he comes in and starts right away. Meaning he'll likely get killed behind the sieve that is the Lions O-line (Adjusted sack rate 9.4% in 2008, good for 31st out of 32 teams!). The running game may provide a bit of respite for the young man (they were ranked only 28th in run blocking!). And he better score a lot a points, since the 2008 Lion's defense was ranked 31st in weighted DVOA. At least they've been consistent, though, since they were ranked 31st in 2007 as well.

The point of all this is, the Lions suck. We all know this. This is true of pretty much any team picking in the top of the draft. And as good (or not good) as Stafford could be, putting him in doesn't fix their very deep fundamental flaws. If anything, throwing him to the lions like that (so to speak) will probably get him killed and do little for the team's W-L record.

More realistically, the Lions will bring him along slowly, meaning they'll suck badly with another crappy veteran QB for half a season or so before deciding its time to suck badly with their $60 million dollar "star" QB taking the snaps. Or maybe they sit him the whole year, though I doubt that would happen unless they happened to get competitive with someone else taking the snaps (not bloody likely).

The truth is, no matter what you do, you're paying the guy a ton of money and most likely not getting much in return, at least not for at least 2 years and possibly never. Sure, he could gain some game experience and all that, which could help him improve and reach his potential as the next great NFL QB (NOT BLOODY LIKELY!). Or more likely he'll be a drain on your time, patience and salary cap.

In my mind, investing a ton in a QB and hoping he'll fix things for you is like a really bad baseball team investing a ton in a top closer and thinking that will turn their fortunes around. "Hey, he saved 54 games last year, he's just what we need". Its completely backwards. Like a closer, a QB is pretty much the last thing you should blow your money on. Sure, both positions are nice to have and both can help you win a lot of games. That is, if you have the rest of the pieces in place. A top closer is only a worthwhile investment if you have the hitters, defense and other pitching to make it work. Similarly, a top QB is only worthwhile if you have some talent to surround it. And again, that's assuming the QB is in fact top notch, which we can't even say for certain in this case.

So draft a tackle. Draft a linebacker, or a D-Lineman. Draft someone who's likely to step in now and at least play and help your team get better. Yes, you risk a flop, but the odds on a non-QB turning out to be at least a solid high pick seem a hell of a lot higher than the odds on a QB doing the same. Or better yet, trade the freaking pick, saving yourself some money while adding more potential draft picks. Because that's really what the draft is about for a bad team: volume. Grab as much as you can to increase the odds that some of it is good.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Stafford really is the best player in the draft and he's the promised one who will lead the Lions to salvation. Maybe any lineman or defender they could otherwise pick is a flop waiting to happen. But you can't know that for sure, and you sure as hell can't tell me that the freaking Lions know that. These are the same brain dead assholes who employed Matt Millen for 8 fucking years!

Finally, I know a lot of people are gonna be like "Oh, I feel bad for him, he has to play for the Lions". Screw that. The guys gonna be rich as hell. Sure he'll live in Detroit half the year, but probably in those rich gated suburbs where all the retired Auto Execs hang out and spend all day rolling around in the bonus money they earned for running their industry in to its grave. Plus Detroit plays in a Dome so he won't even been freezing his ass off in half is games. Whatever happens, its a sweet deal for him in a lot of ways.

So that's my thoughts on the supposed Stafford pick. It kinda unsatisfying, because if he succeeds then I'm wrong, but if things go as I predicted its not like I really went out on a limb. "Oh, the Lions suck and are gonna make a dumb decision". Big News!

Meanwhile, the Chargers should draft Rey Rey. Not cause they need him (they don't), or even have a place for him on the roster, or because they don't have a half dozen other glaring needs for that first round pick (they do). They should do it because it would be awesome. Think about this as your starting line backing corp: Phillips, Cooper, Rey and Lights Out. Bad ass. Plus, all their salaries combined don't add up to one Matt Stafford.