Monday, December 1, 2008

Mack Brown really is Bob Stoops's Bitch

Sucks to be the Longhorns. You have a great season, you actually win the Red River Shootout, you're one miracle play from going undefeated, and in the end your reward is to sit at home and watch two teams you have beat play for the Big-12 title.

I have no particular love for the Sooners or the Horns, but I gotta feel bad for Mack Brown. He had won the Shootout before against Stoops but only in years where his team came in as a large favorite. This year he managed to get his underdog team to win in Dallas, and his big reward is to watch Stoops take his team to the Big-12 Championship game and probably the National Championship Game, while his team will be thrown a bone by the BCS with a Fiesta Bowl matchup against Utah.

I've already expressed my opinion that the tie was decided incorrectly. In my opinion deciding of a conference championship or division title must be done taking into account only what teams do in conference play. The truth of the matter is that this tie was broken as a result of Oklahoma's slightly better out of conference schedule. This may not seem like a big deal, but consider another scenario: all the Big-12 conference results were identical, but Texas and Oklahoma each lost an out of Conference game and finished 10-2 instead of 11-1. Under this tiebreaker Texas Tech, the team which was disemboweled by Oklahoma just last week, would have likely been declared the champion of the Big-12 South on account of their superior overall record.

Looking to the SEC, whose championship game this Saturday will decide one half of the National Title Game matchup, I was floored when I learned that Alabama is a 10 point underdog against the Gators. Think about that: the undefeated, consensus #1 team in every poll is a double digit underdog to on a neutral field. What's more amazing is that I can't really say its wrong. Alabama has had a great season, but they have benefited from a schedule which, in retrospect, is much weaker than it originally looked. Their big wins against Clemson and Auburn aren't particularly impressive given the massive struggles of those teams this year. They had several close calls against mediocre teams, including now-unranked LSU, Kentucky and Ole Miss. Even their biggest win, when they smashed Georgia on the road, is less impressive given Georgia's (lack of) performance against Florida, struggles against mediocre Auburn, Kentucky and South Carolina teams and most recent loss to Georgia Tech.

Of course, Bama has a chance to shut me and all other critics like me up this Saturday. I do think they matchup fairly well against the Gators, though it will take very good execution on their part if they want to pull the upset.

Assuming things go as predicted, we'll have a Florida vs. Oklahoma national title game next month. This should be a great game with a ton of offense. You'll have at least one Heisman trophy winner in Tim Tebow and another possible winner in Sam Bradford, plus tons of speed and talent at every position.

Speaking of the Heisman, I think the Big-12's embarrassment of offensive riches will be its undoing. Bradford, Colt McCoy, Harrell, Robinson, Daniel and Crabtree will likely all split the Big-12 voting block into little bitty pieces. Meanwhile, a guy like Tebow will face little opposition from his SEC peers. Its a perfect divide and conquer scenario.

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