Prediction Perils

Just a quick thought on the NFL draft.

Offensive Tackle Andre Smith, who played at Alabama, is a beast. He's practically a Meast. Great physical skills, talent, and production in his college career. He won the Outland Trophy and was the rock of one of the best O-lines in the nation.

Smith is coming out early for the NFL draft. He's widely predicted as "the No. 2 overall draft pick". Its really incredible how far this prediction has gone. On message boards, news stories, and mock drafts he's almost universally touted as going at no. 2.

This is crazy, for a couple reasons. First, no one, and I mean no one, can predict the NFL draft worth a damn. Sure the top 5 picks are generally pretty easy to figure out, but even that can be a crap shoot. Its especially hard given that there are months (technically 99 days) of workouts, combines and draft analysis between now and the end of April. Who knows how Smith and his fellow draft class will be shuffled around as they impress or disappoint the scouts.

Finally, its especially crazy because it assumes that the Lions, who are the only 0-16 team in history and desperately trying to rebuild their shattered team in the wake of Matt Millen, are going to draft Georgia QB Matt Stafford with the first overall pick. This is insane, absolutely insane. Lets think about this:

Option a) draft a beast of an O-lineman who can step in an play productively this year and possibly develop into a franchise tackle. At the very worst you get a solid mauler who isn't going to take long to get up to speed.

Option b) draft an above average but not spectacular QB, who wasn't even the best QB in his own conference, and of course pay him a lot more than you would have to pay Smith because of the so called "QB premium". Try and plug him into an offense which sucks, behind a line which doesn't have Andre Smith, and hope he doesn't get killed before he plays the season or two usually required for a QB to catch up to the NFL learning curve. Which assumes he ever will. Let's remember, for every Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco (who by the way benefit greatly from a very strong supporting cast, something Stafford won't have), there are a dozen QBs who end up as lunch meat because they are rushed into playing too soon with a weak supporting cast.

I'm not saying that Smith couldn't be a bust or Stafford couldn't be a star, but the idea that Stafford should definitely go first and Smith will definitely be #2 is crazy, especially at this juncture.