Tuesday, September 23, 2008

QB rating is (gasp) overrated

Yes, I pulled out the dirty "o" word. But for good reason: its late, and I couldn't think of a better title on short notice. Its got "rated" right in it. Come on, you think of something better.

There's an old cliche which says that "there are lies, damn lies, and statistics". I'm not hostile towards statistics like a lot of people. Stats are just numbers, they can't hurt you, you just have to interpret them properly and know which ones are useful (not many) and which are bull (the rest).

Into the latter category I put the NFL QB rating system. Philip Rivers is my team's QB. He's having a great start of the season, leading the league in QB rating and playing great football. But after watching all his games and looking at the corresponding QB ratings, I have to call Bullshit. Let me explain:

In game 1 Philip was 17-27 for 217 yards and 3 tds. He had no turnovers and averaged 8 yards a pass attempt. Pretty good performance, and for his efforts Philip got a rating of 125.1.

In game 3 Philip was 19-25 for 250 yards, 3 tds and 1 terrible interception with was returned as a pick-6. He averaged 10 yards a pass attempt and earned a rating of 130.

In game 2, on the Road, battling back from an 18 point deficit, Rivers was 21-33 for 377 yards, 3 TDs and 1 pick which really wasn't a pick and would have been overturned except for some broken replay equipment. Rivers lead the comeback and put his team in position to win, and averaged a gaudy 11.42 yards per attempt.

So, for what was really his best performance of the year, what QB rating did Rivers get? 120.4.

Granted, that's a great rating. But really, of what use is a statistic which rates a QB's best game as his worst and vice versa?

On the other hand, my QB is now leading the league in this category. Suck it, Cutler lovers.

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